WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 01-24-15 at 1:46 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
01-24-15 |
19 |
|
21 |
-9 |
|
6 |
7 |
|
9 |
-3 |
|
3 |
10 |
|
12 |
4 |
|
9 |
14 |
|
17 |
8 |
|
13 |
11-27-14 |
30 |
25.3 |
25 |
18 |
17.2 |
15 |
30 |
|
25 |
30 |
|
20 |
30 |
|
29 |
22 |
|
13 |
26 |
|
25 |
21 |
|
19 |
11-26-14 |
31 |
33.2 |
30 |
13 |
14.7 |
17 |
30 |
25.3 |
28 |
21 |
17.2 |
18 |
34 |
|
29 |
24 |
|
24 |
30 |
|
30 |
23 |
|
13 |
11-25-14 |
32 |
34.0 |
27 |
19 |
30.6 |
18 |
26 |
33.2 |
27 |
13 |
14.7 |
17 |
30 |
25.3 |
27 |
21 |
17.2 |
18 |
31 |
|
29 |
21 |
|
21 |
11-24-14 |
34 |
34.4 |
33 |
27 |
16.8 |
17 |
32 |
34.0 |
29 |
20 |
30.6 |
17 |
33 |
33.2 |
28 |
26 |
14.7 |
19 |
31 |
25.3 |
29 |
27 |
17.2 |
19 |
11-23-14 |
37 |
34.1 |
33 |
29 |
32.4 |
20 |
35 |
34.4 |
30 |
26 |
16.8 |
15 |
37 |
34.0 |
28 |
29 |
30.6 |
16 |
34 |
33.2 |
28 |
26 |
14.7 |
20 |
11-22-14 |
40 |
37.2 |
35 |
34 |
26.4 |
22 |
37 |
34.1 |
32 |
32 |
32.4 |
21 |
38 |
34.4 |
31 |
32 |
16.8 |
17 |
37 |
34.0 |
28 |
29 |
30.6 |
17 |
11-21-14 |
42 |
41.3 |
39 |
30 |
34.7 |
28 |
37 |
37.2 |
34 |
30 |
26.4 |
22 |
37 |
34.1 |
31 |
30 |
32.4 |
18 |
39 |
34.4 |
32 |
29 |
16.8 |
18 |
11-20-14 |
41 |
39.8 |
44 |
37 |
39.1 |
43 |
41 |
41.3 |
45 |
29 |
34.7 |
30 |
37 |
37.2 |
36 |
31 |
26.4 |
26 |
40 |
34.1 |
34 |
31 |
32.4 |
22 |
11-19-14 |
45 |
43.3 |
41 |
31 |
34.0 |
28 |
37 |
39.8 |
36 |
30 |
39.1 |
29 |
39 |
41.3 |
32 |
29 |
34.7 |
27 |
39 |
37.2 |
34 |
30 |
26.4 |
21 |
11-18-14 |
45 |
46.6 |
41 |
38 |
35.3 |
29 |
42 |
43.3 |
38 |
32 |
34.0 |
27 |
38 |
39.8 |
37 |
31 |
39.1 |
29 |
39 |
41.3 |
33 |
29 |
34.7 |
24 |
11-17-14 |
42 |
41.3 |
40 |
33 |
39.0 |
30 |
43 |
46.6 |
35 |
35 |
35.3 |
29 |
39 |
43.3 |
40 |
30 |
34.0 |
31 |
38 |
39.8 |
38 |
32 |
39.1 |
32 |
11-16-14 |
43 |
40.5 |
37 |
38 |
38.7 |
30 |
41 |
41.3 |
35 |
36 |
39.0 |
29 |
42 |
46.6 |
33 |
37 |
35.3 |
31 |
40 |
43.3 |
40 |
32 |
34.0 |
25 |
11-15-14 |
42 |
38.3 |
41 |
29 |
37.6 |
32 |
43 |
40.5 |
39 |
38 |
38.7 |
31 |
41 |
41.3 |
36 |
36 |
39.0 |
34 |
42 |
46.6 |
40 |
36 |
35.3 |
38 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
7 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
1 |
6 |
|
1 |
5 |
|
2 |
4 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
2 |
4 |
|
2 |
% Succ |
53.8 |
|
30.8 |
23.1 |
|
7.7 |
50.0 |
|
8.3 |
41.7 |
|
16.7 |
36.4 |
|
18.2 |
18.2 |
|
27.3 |
30.0 |
|
20.0 |
40.0 |
|
20.0 |
Ave Error |
2.1 |
|
2.9 |
4.9 |
|
6.2 |
2.4 |
|
4.7 |
4.2 |
|
6.7 |
2.5 |
|
5.0 |
5.6 |
|
5.9 |
3.4 |
|
4.1 |
5.5 |
|
6.7 |
Net Error |
1.1 |
|
-1.8 |
-1.6 |
|
-5.2 |
-0.6 |
|
-3.6 |
-1.4 |
|
-6.2 |
0.0 |
|
-4.7 |
1.1 |
|
-4.9 |
1.0 |
|
-3.3 |
2.0 |
|
-4.5 |
Std Dev |
1.3 |
|
2.0 |
3.6 |
|
4.0 |
2.1 |
|
3.0 |
3.7 |
|
4.6 |
1.8 |
|
3.4 |
4.8 |
|
5.8 |
2.6 |
|
3.0 |
5.0 |
|
5.5 |
|
|
Updated: 11-26-14 at 5:55 pm |
Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
11-26-14 |
17 |
|
18 |
30 |
|
26 |
22 |
|
17 |
32 |
|
27 |
25 |
|
22 |
30 |
|
29 |
22 |
|
13 |
26 |
|
23 |
11-25-14 |
17 |
30.5 |
18 |
31 |
34.0 |
28 |
11 |
|
19 |
30 |
|
28 |
21 |
|
20 |
34 |
|
29 |
24 |
|
21 |
30 |
|
30 |
11-24-14 |
29 |
16.8 |
17 |
35 |
34.4 |
28 |
19 |
30.5 |
16 |
32 |
34.0 |
27 |
13 |
|
16 |
30 |
|
28 |
21 |
|
18 |
31 |
|
31 |
11-23-14 |
30 |
32.4 |
25 |
35 |
34.1 |
31 |
29 |
16.8 |
16 |
36 |
34.4 |
28 |
25 |
30.5 |
18 |
33 |
34.0 |
27 |
26 |
|
17 |
31 |
|
28 |
11-22-14 |
33 |
26.4 |
22 |
36 |
37.2 |
30 |
33 |
32.4 |
19 |
37 |
34.1 |
31 |
33 |
16.8 |
15 |
37 |
34.4 |
28 |
29 |
30.5 |
18 |
34 |
34.0 |
32 |
11-21-14 |
32 |
33.1 |
26 |
39 |
41.3 |
33 |
31 |
26.4 |
19 |
38 |
37.2 |
30 |
31 |
32.4 |
18 |
38 |
34.1 |
33 |
32 |
16.8 |
18 |
37 |
34.4 |
30 |
11-20-14 |
35 |
39.1 |
22 |
41 |
39.8 |
30 |
29 |
33.1 |
26 |
38 |
41.3 |
31 |
29 |
26.4 |
16 |
38 |
37.2 |
29 |
29 |
32.4 |
21 |
39 |
34.1 |
31 |
11-19-14 |
32 |
43.3 |
31 |
39 |
34.0 |
32 |
36 |
39.1 |
29 |
39 |
39.8 |
31 |
31 |
33.1 |
25 |
40 |
41.3 |
32 |
31 |
26.4 |
19 |
40 |
37.2 |
29 |
11-18-14 |
40 |
35.2 |
35 |
41 |
46.6 |
40 |
33 |
43.3 |
26 |
37 |
34.0 |
37 |
32 |
39.1 |
32 |
40 |
39.8 |
32 |
30 |
33.1 |
29 |
39 |
41.3 |
35 |
11-17-14 |
33 |
39.0 |
30 |
43 |
41.3 |
34 |
37 |
35.2 |
32 |
39 |
46.6 |
39 |
31 |
43.3 |
31 |
38 |
34.0 |
40 |
32 |
39.1 |
36 |
39 |
39.8 |
37 |
11-16-14 |
34 |
38.7 |
34 |
40 |
40.5 |
38 |
33 |
39.0 |
31 |
40 |
41.3 |
33 |
35 |
35.2 |
29 |
39 |
46.6 |
36 |
30 |
43.3 |
24 |
38 |
34.0 |
37 |
11-15-14 |
29 |
35.5 |
30 |
43 |
38.3 |
37 |
38 |
38.7 |
29 |
41 |
40.5 |
36 |
36 |
39.0 |
31 |
43 |
41.3 |
35 |
36 |
35.2 |
32 |
40 |
46.6 |
39 |
11-14-14 |
25 |
31.3 |
24 |
42 |
36.9 |
39 |
29 |
35.5 |
27 |
43 |
38.3 |
36 |
38 |
38.7 |
32 |
42 |
40.5 |
38 |
37 |
39.0 |
31 |
43 |
41.3 |
34 |
11-13-14 |
27 |
25.1 |
29 |
40 |
43.5 |
39 |
22 |
31.3 |
24 |
40 |
36.9 |
36 |
25 |
35.5 |
25 |
42 |
38.3 |
38 |
36 |
38.7 |
31 |
43 |
40.5 |
43 |
Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
# Succ |
2 |
|
2 |
6 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
1 |
6 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
6 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
% Succ |
15.4 |
|
15.4 |
46.2 |
|
15.4 |
25.0 |
|
8.3 |
50.0 |
|
8.3 |
27.3 |
|
9.1 |
54.5 |
|
18.2 |
30.0 |
|
10.0 |
30.0 |
|
10.0 |
Ave Error |
6.3 |
|
7.0 |
2.7 |
|
5.2 |
5.9 |
|
8.9 |
2.6 |
|
5.8 |
5.6 |
|
8.9 |
2.6 |
|
6.0 |
5.4 |
|
7.8 |
2.8 |
|
4.7 |
Net Error |
-2.3 |
|
-6.4 |
0.2 |
|
-4.8 |
-2.7 |
|
-8.9 |
0.1 |
|
-5.3 |
-2.2 |
|
-8.9 |
0.8 |
|
-4.9 |
-1.3 |
|
-7.6 |
0.9 |
|
-3.6 |
Std Dev |
4.0 |
|
5.0 |
1.9 |
|
3.0 |
4.5 |
|
5.7 |
2.1 |
|
3.2 |
5.4 |
|
5.7 |
2.4 |
|
4.0 |
4.9 |
|
6.0 |
2.2 |
|
3.4 |
|
|