WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 01-24-15 at 1:46 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-24-15 19   21 -9   6 7   9 -3   3 10   12 4   9 14   17 8   13
11-27-14 30 25.3 25 18 17.2 15 30   25 30   20 30   29 22   13 26   25 21   19
11-26-14 31 33.2 30 13 14.7 17 30 25.3 28 21 17.2 18 34   29 24   24 30   30 23   13
11-25-14 32 34.0 27 19 30.6 18 26 33.2 27 13 14.7 17 30 25.3 27 21 17.2 18 31   29 21   21
11-24-14 34 34.4 33 27 16.8 17 32 34.0 29 20 30.6 17 33 33.2 28 26 14.7 19 31 25.3 29 27 17.2 19
11-23-14 37 34.1 33 29 32.4 20 35 34.4 30 26 16.8 15 37 34.0 28 29 30.6 16 34 33.2 28 26 14.7 20
11-22-14 40 37.2 35 34 26.4 22 37 34.1 32 32 32.4 21 38 34.4 31 32 16.8 17 37 34.0 28 29 30.6 17
11-21-14 42 41.3 39 30 34.7 28 37 37.2 34 30 26.4 22 37 34.1 31 30 32.4 18 39 34.4 32 29 16.8 18
11-20-14 41 39.8 44 37 39.1 43 41 41.3 45 29 34.7 30 37 37.2 36 31 26.4 26 40 34.1 34 31 32.4 22
11-19-14 45 43.3 41 31 34.0 28 37 39.8 36 30 39.1 29 39 41.3 32 29 34.7 27 39 37.2 34 30 26.4 21
11-18-14 45 46.6 41 38 35.3 29 42 43.3 38 32 34.0 27 38 39.8 37 31 39.1 29 39 41.3 33 29 34.7 24
11-17-14 42 41.3 40 33 39.0 30 43 46.6 35 35 35.3 29 39 43.3 40 30 34.0 31 38 39.8 38 32 39.1 32
11-16-14 43 40.5 37 38 38.7 30 41 41.3 35 36 39.0 29 42 46.6 33 37 35.3 31 40 43.3 40 32 34.0 25
11-15-14 42 38.3 41 29 37.6 32 43 40.5 39 38 38.7 31 41 41.3 36 36 39.0 34 42 46.6 40 36 35.3 38
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 7 4 3 1 6 1 5 2 4 2 2 3 3 2 4 2
% Succ 53.8   30.8 23.1   7.7 50.0   8.3 41.7   16.7 36.4   18.2 18.2   27.3 30.0   20.0 40.0   20.0
Ave Error 2.1   2.9 4.9   6.2 2.4   4.7 4.2   6.7 2.5   5.0 5.6   5.9 3.4   4.1 5.5   6.7
Net Error 1.1   -1.8 -1.6   -5.2 -0.6   -3.6 -1.4   -6.2 0.0   -4.7 1.1   -4.9 1.0   -3.3 2.0   -4.5
Std Dev 1.3   2.0 3.6   4.0 2.1   3.0 3.7   4.6 1.8   3.4 4.8   5.8 2.6   3.0 5.0   5.5

Updated: 11-26-14 at 5:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
11-26-14 17   18 30   26 22   17 32   27 25   22 30   29 22   13 26   23
11-25-14 17 30.5 18 31 34.0 28 11   19 30   28 21   20 34   29 24   21 30   30
11-24-14 29 16.8 17 35 34.4 28 19 30.5 16 32 34.0 27 13   16 30   28 21   18 31   31
11-23-14 30 32.4 25 35 34.1 31 29 16.8 16 36 34.4 28 25 30.5 18 33 34.0 27 26   17 31   28
11-22-14 33 26.4 22 36 37.2 30 33 32.4 19 37 34.1 31 33 16.8 15 37 34.4 28 29 30.5 18 34 34.0 32
11-21-14 32 33.1 26 39 41.3 33 31 26.4 19 38 37.2 30 31 32.4 18 38 34.1 33 32 16.8 18 37 34.4 30
11-20-14 35 39.1 22 41 39.8 30 29 33.1 26 38 41.3 31 29 26.4 16 38 37.2 29 29 32.4 21 39 34.1 31
11-19-14 32 43.3 31 39 34.0 32 36 39.1 29 39 39.8 31 31 33.1 25 40 41.3 32 31 26.4 19 40 37.2 29
11-18-14 40 35.2 35 41 46.6 40 33 43.3 26 37 34.0 37 32 39.1 32 40 39.8 32 30 33.1 29 39 41.3 35
11-17-14 33 39.0 30 43 41.3 34 37 35.2 32 39 46.6 39 31 43.3 31 38 34.0 40 32 39.1 36 39 39.8 37
11-16-14 34 38.7 34 40 40.5 38 33 39.0 31 40 41.3 33 35 35.2 29 39 46.6 36 30 43.3 24 38 34.0 37
11-15-14 29 35.5 30 43 38.3 37 38 38.7 29 41 40.5 36 36 39.0 31 43 41.3 35 36 35.2 32 40 46.6 39
11-14-14 25 31.3 24 42 36.9 39 29 35.5 27 43 38.3 36 38 38.7 32 42 40.5 38 37 39.0 31 43 41.3 34
11-13-14 27 25.1 29 40 43.5 39 22 31.3 24 40 36.9 36 25 35.5 25 42 38.3 38 36 38.7 31 43 40.5 43
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 6 2 3 1 6 1 3 1 6 2 3 1 3 1
% Succ 15.4   15.4 46.2   15.4 25.0   8.3 50.0   8.3 27.3   9.1 54.5   18.2 30.0   10.0 30.0   10.0
Ave Error 6.3   7.0 2.7   5.2 5.9   8.9 2.6   5.8 5.6   8.9 2.6   6.0 5.4   7.8 2.8   4.7
Net Error -2.3   -6.4 0.2   -4.8 -2.7   -8.9 0.1   -5.3 -2.2   -8.9 0.8   -4.9 -1.3   -7.6 0.9   -3.6
Std Dev 4.0   5.0 1.9   3.0 4.5   5.7 2.1   3.2 5.4   5.7 2.4   4.0 4.9   6.0 2.2   3.4




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